La Liga Weekly

Intro: While most of us have tuned out by this time in the Champions League, the group stages are often mind-numbing affairs, teams have qualified and are sending out B-squads to eat minutes, this year has been different. Today’s match between Inter and Barcelona at the Camp Nou actually means something. Barcelona come into the match on 5 points, having beaten Dynamo Kyiv at home, drawn twice to both Inter at the San Siro and held to a scoreless draw at Rubin Kazan. While not overwhelming, the blaugrana are still reeling from their inexplicable loss to the Russian champions at home 1-2. Instead of enjoying what looked like an easy Group F draw, Barca need to win at the home to have any chance at advancing to the next round, as a draw puts it in the hands of Kyiv to beat Rubin Kazan for any hope at all.

Form: Inter are enjoying a good run of form domestically where they top Serie A and are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. Barca who have just this past weekend dropped out of first place in Spain and are 7-0-3 in their last 10.

Scoring: The blaugrana have scored 26 goals in those games, conceding 8 for a whopping +17 goal differential. It’s impressive, but most of those goals came against 4 teams who are very poor in defense Atletico Madrid, Mallorca, Zaragoza, and Racing. When faced with disciplined, compact sides to wait for the counter-attack, they are a more reasonable +6 in goal differential. It would stand to reason that the nerazzurri would be outclassed offensively, but they have 25 goals in the last 10 games, conceding 10 with a +15 goal differential.

Health: Barcelona come into the game nursing a number of minor to moderate injuries. Leo Messi is very doubtful for the match, ruled out for 8-10 days with a thigh injury, but he may yet play especially if called on the second half. Zlatan Ibrahimovich was also doubtful at San Mames over the weekend with a hamstring injury, but Barca held him out for just this purpose and he rejoined training. More serious are Yaya Toure and Eric Abidal who have the swine flu and Dmytro Chygrynskiy who is ineligible to play. Inter on the other hand are relatively healthy with only Eto’o and Wesley Snejder held out over the weekend but both will play.

Tactics: Stands to reason that Barcelona will not adapt their style as coach Pep Guardiola reiterated. They will go to attack, playing their usual 4-3-3 with Zlatan in the middle. Thierry Henry will likely start on the left of him, at least early on and either youngster Pedro or Bojan on the right. Don’t put it past Pep though, to out “Mou the Mou” playing games with Messi’s injury and starting the “surprisingly” healthy Argentine. The midfield will be more of the same, Xavi and Iniesta as the focal points with Keita or Sergi Busquets at the back. Chygrinsky won’t play, but Pique, Puyol, and Alves will play in some combination alongside either centerback Marquez or fullback Maxwell. Mourinho’s Inter will like come at them with a standard 4-4-2. They’ll pressure, they’ll follow the Barca-rules and bump them off the ball and they’ll wait for set-pieces and try to hit them on the break.

Opinion: As much as Inter look the stronger team here, it is at home for the Beneamata, Barca have far more to play for. All they need is a goal, the Catalans are stronger than people think in defense, they keep the ball better than any side in the world and Italian sides over the last few years have been found wanting in big games.

Result: Inter 1-2 Barca.